The countdown has begun for India’s U23 men’s national football team as they prepare for the AFC U23 Asian Cup 2026 qualifiers, a campaign that could shape the trajectory of Indian football’s next generation.
Drawn in Group H alongside Bahrain, hosts Qatar, and Brunei Darussalam, the challenge is formidable. Yet, despite the odds, there remains a narrow but realistic pathway to qualification provided India combines tactical discipline with psychological resilience. The AFC U23 Asian Cup has grown into one of Asia’s premier youth football competitions. It acts as a critical stepping stone between youth and senior international football, offering young players exposure to high-intensity, high-stakes competition. While the 2026 edition in Saudi Arabia is not directly tied to Olympic qualification, it remains an important marker of developmental progress.
For India, participation in the final tournament would signify a maturing football ecosystem that is beginning to produce talent capable of competing on the continental stage. The qualification format is unforgiving: 44 teams divided into 11 groups, with only the group winners and the four best second-placed teams advancing, alongside the already-qualified hosts. For India, beating hosts Qatar to top the group is statistically improbable. That leaves one realistic path: finishing second and securing one of the four best runner-up spots.
Group H: A Closer Look
- Qatar (Pot 1): The strongest side in the group and automatic qualifiers as hosts. Historically dominant against India, but possibly more focused on experimentation than results.
- Bahrain (Pot 2): India’s most direct competitor for second place. The opening match against them is effectively a do-or-die encounter.
- India (Pot 3): A side in transition, armed with talent but undermined by systemic issues such as lack of club playing time for young players.
- Brunei Darussalam (Pot 4): The group’s weakest side, where goal difference will be critical.
The structure of the group leaves India with a clear strategic roadmap: win against Bahrain, manage damage against Qatar, and maximize goals against Brunei.
Moosa’s Vision: Learning from the Toughest Tests
Head coach Naushad Moosa has taken a pragmatic, long-term approach to the campaign. His philosophy prioritizes development over results, emphasizing that playing against stronger sides, even in defeat, is vital for progress. This mindset was evident in India’s preparation. A 20-day training camp in Bengaluru was followed by two closed-door friendlies against Iraq U23 in Kuala Lumpur. Both matches ended in defeat (1–2 and 1–3), but Moosa viewed them as valuable experiences. Facing a top-tier side tested India’s defensive resilience and gave players confidence that they could compete physically and mentally with stronger teams.
In Moosa’s words, these matches were a “trial by fire” and precisely the kind of preparation India has historically lacked.
India’s 23-man squad is a mix of players from the Indian Super League (ISL), I-League, and developmental setups.
- Goalkeepers: Sahil, Mohd Arbaz, Dipesh Chauhan
- Defenders: Bikash Yumnam, Pramveer, Muhammed Saheef, Harsh Arun Palande, Subham Bhattacharya, Ricky Meetei Haobam
- Midfielders: Soham Varshneya, Lalrinliana Hnamte, Mohammed Aimen, Vibin Mohanan, Mohammed Sanan, Shivaldo Singh, Ayush Dev Chhetri, Macarton Louis Nickson, Lalremtluanga Fanai, Vinith Venkatesh
- Forwards: Parthib Gogoi, Muhammed Suhail, Sreekuttan MS, Sahil Harijan
The squad boasts attacking talents like Parthib Gogoi, whose finishing will be key, and midfielders such as Vibin Mohanan, capable of dictating tempo. Yet, Moosa has repeatedly voiced concern over a systemic issue: lack of competitive playing time for young players in domestic leagues. Many are reduced to bench roles in ISL clubs, limiting their growth. Extended camps and exposure tours are Moosa’s stop-gap solution, but it remains a structural handicap compared to Asian rivals.
The Fixtures and What They Mean
September 3: India vs Bahrain
This is the defining match of the campaign. A win would put India firmly in contention for a best runner-up spot. A draw keeps hopes alive; a loss would make qualification nearly impossible. Bahrain’s form is mixed, but they remain a tactically disciplined side. India must stay compact defensively while looking to exploit transitions.
September 6: India vs Qatar
On paper, Qatar is the group’s most formidable opponent. Historically, they have beaten India three times and drawn once at this level. Yet, as hosts, their qualification is assured. This opens a small window for India Qatar may rotate heavily, experiment with systems, or treat the match as preparation rather than a must-win. If India can nick a point, it could prove decisive in the runner-up race.
September 9: India vs Brunei Darussalam
This is less a match and more a goal-difference mission. Brunei has suffered crushing defeats in past qualifiers, including 8–0 (Indonesia), 7–1 (Malaysia), and 11–0 (Syria). India must be ruthless, piling on goals while maintaining a clean sheet. Every strike could tilt the balance in the tight race for best second-placed finishers.
Strategic Scenarios
Scenario A: Winning the Group (Highly Improbable) Would require victories against both Bahrain and Qatar. Given Qatar’s pedigree and home advantage, this is near impossible.
Scenario B: Best Runner-Up (Most Plausible) The realistic path forward:
- Beat Bahrain: Three points, psychological boost.
- Contain Qatar: A draw or a narrow loss that limits damage to goal difference.
- Demolish Brunei: A scoreline of 5–0 or better could be the difference in qualification.
This formula, while challenging, is within reach if India executes well.
Key Performance Indicators
- Defensive Discipline: India must avoid conceding cheap goals. Organization, compactness, and communication will be vital, especially against Bahrain and Qatar.
- Clinical Finishing: Forwards like Gogoi and Suhail must take chances when they come, particularly in the Bahrain and Brunei fixtures. Wastefulness could cost dearly.
- Psychological Resilience: The team must handle pressure moments, especially in the Bahrain opener. Moosa has emphasized composure and focus as central to the team’s identity.
- Goal Difference Maximization: Against Brunei, the objective is not just victory but a landslide scoreline. Every goal may matter in the broader qualification table.
India’s U23 challenge cannot be isolated from the structural issues in Indian football. The ISL has raised visibility, but its impact on youth development is debatable. Young players often struggle for minutes in a league dominated by senior Indians and foreign imports. This stagnation limits the pipeline feeding the U23 and senior teams. Moosa’s philosophy emphasizing process over immediate results is a recognition of these shortcomings. His insistence on exposure to tougher opponents mirrors lessons learned in other sports.
Just as India’s U16 basketball team collapsed at continental level due to lack of exposure, Moosa is determined to ensure his players are not similarly unprepared.
The road to Riyadh is fraught with obstacles, but it is not blocked. India’s chances of qualifying for the AFC U23 Asian Cup 2026 depend on a razor-thin formula: beat Bahrain, survive Qatar, and annihilate Brunei. Anything less will almost certainly leave them short. Yet beyond results, this campaign is about measuring the developmental health of Indian football. If Moosa’s squad can compete with discipline and maturity, it will be a sign that the system, however flawed, is producing players capable of handling the demands of continental competition.
If not, it will reinforce the urgent need for structural reform in youth development and competitive opportunities. For now, Indian football fans can look forward with cautious optimism. The margins are tight, the stakes are high, and the challenge is steep.
But for India’s U23s, the chance to script history on the road to Riyadh remains alive.
