The AIFF Super Cup 2025-26 reaches a crucial juncture as the group stage enters its mid-point, with two vital matches set for Thursday at Fatorda and Bambolim.
The fixtures Rajasthan United vs Kerala Blasters FC (4:30 PM IST) and Bengaluru FC vs Mohammedan SC (7:30 PM IST) carry significant implications for four clubs whose tournament fates could be decided by nightfall. With only group winners advancing to the semi-finals, the Super Cup’s ruthless format leaves no room for complacency. Every goal matters, every mistake magnified, and every matchday could shift the balance in pursuit of a coveted AFC Champions League Two playoff spot.
Kerala Blasters enter the tournament under the spotlight, both for their quality and the expectations that accompany it. Head coach David Catala, who took charge earlier this season, faces the challenge of managing a squad stretched thin by national team call-ups and a delayed pre-season.
The Blasters’ core Indian contingent including Danish Farooq, Vibin Mohanan, and Korou Singh are unavailable due to India’s AFC Asian Cup preparations and U-23 commitments. This leaves Catala heavily reliant on his foreign stars Adrian Luna, Noah Sadaoui, and Dusan Lagator to deliver an immediate impact in their opening group match.
Their recent Super Cup history adds further urgency. In April, Kerala exited in the quarter-finals after a narrow 1–2 defeat to Mohun Bagan SG, a performance that exposed their lack of finishing consistency despite controlling large phases of play. Against Rajasthan United FC, however, Kerala are clear favorites. The odds underline a gulf in quality and experience between an ISL powerhouse and an I-League representative still adapting to top-tier intensity.
Yet, Rajasthan United have shown they can unsettle stronger sides with organization and resilience. The I-League outfit enters the Super Cup with mixed form convincing wins over Shillong Lajong (4–0) and Skalzangling (5–0), but heavy defeats against Gokulam Kerala (0–3) and Inter Kashi (1–3). Their inconsistency mirrors the challenge faced by many I-League sides: capable of brilliance in bursts but prone to collapse under sustained pressure.
Expect Rajasthan to adopt a low defensive block, likely in a 5-4-1 setup, to frustrate Kerala and restrict Luna’s influence in central areas. Their best hope lies in exploiting transition moments if the Blasters’ backline overcommits.
For Kerala, patience will be key. Luna’s creativity and Sadaoui’s acceleration on the flanks will shape much of the attack, while Koldo Obieta, their Spanish striker, will be expected to capitalize on service into the box. The Blasters’ objective is not merely victory, but a statement win ideally by two or more goals to match Mumbai City FC’s +3 goal difference in Group D after their 4–1 win over SC Delhi.
A sluggish start due to fitness gaps may slow early progress, but Kerala’s superior technique and composure in possession should tilt the match. A strong finish and individual brilliance from Luna and Sadaoui should secure all three points, even if Rajasthan manage a consolation through counterplay.
Prediction: Kerala Blasters FC 3–1 Rajasthan United FC
Bengaluru FC vs Mohammedan SC: Survival Stakes in Group C
The night fixture brings an altogether different dynamic one defined by urgency. In Group C, Punjab FC have already set the pace with a 3–0 win over Gokulam Kerala, meaning Bengaluru FC (BFC) and Mohammedan SC (MSC) are already under must-win pressure. A draw would leave both sides two points behind Punjab and needing an improbable turnaround in remaining fixtures. Thus, this match is effectively a knockout tie disguised as a group game.
Bengaluru FC, under Gerard Zaragoza, come into the Super Cup with a clear attacking identity: high tempo, direct transitions, and controlled aggression. Their 4-3-3 structure emphasizes quick switches of play and late-game intensity, leveraging their superior conditioning and depth. The core remains experienced and balanced Sunil Chhetri’s leadership, Gurpreet Singh Sandhu’s command in goal, and Edgar Mendez’s goal threat offer BFC stability at both ends. Zaragoza’s plan often peaks in the 61st–75th minute window, a phase where BFC historically score the majority of their goals through sustained pressing and overlapping runs.
Their opponents, Mohammedan SC, carry a different profile. The Kolkata side is built on defensive discipline and opportunism, led by Uzbek midfielder Mirjalol Kasimov the same player who scored the stunning 88th-minute winner against BFC in their 1–0 ISL upset in January 2025. That result serves as a psychological reminder: even giants can fall to compact organization and clinical finishing.
However, MSC’s recent form raises doubts about their durability. A 6–0 loss to NorthEast United in the Kalinga Super Cup exposed fragility when forced to defend deep under sustained tempo. Their defensive duo Florent Ogier and Joseph Adjei will need to replicate the resilience shown in their January win but fatigue and structural gaps remain visible.
The tactical duel will revolve around Kasimov’s creativity versus BFC’s midfield pressure. If BFC’s Alberto Noguera and Suresh Wangjam can isolate Kasimov and limit his passing angles, MSC’s transitions could dry up, forcing them to rely on long clearances and reactive defending. From a strategic lens, BFC’s superior fitness and offensive quality should prevail. Yet, given the stakes and Mohammedan’s history of frustrating favorites, a cagey first half is likely before the game opens up in the final 30 minutes. Analysts project a 3–0 or 2–1 outcome, reflecting BFC’s control but leaving room for one MSC counter.
Prediction: Bengaluru FC 2–1 Mohammedan SC
BFC’s depth and relentless tempo should secure the win, though Kasimov’s creativity may still provide a tense finish.
Final Outlook: Two Games, Two Statements Needed
As Matchday 3 approaches, the stakes for all four teams could not be clearer:
- Kerala Blasters must win decisively to stay in contention with Mumbai City.
- Bengaluru FC must win simply to survive in Group C.
Both ISL sides hold the edge in quality and experience, but the Super Cup’s knockout-like group format ensures no easy outcomes. Expect tactical caution early, attacking urgency late and by Thursday night, a clearer picture of which clubs still hold continental dreams.
Venue: Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium (Fatorda) & GMC Athletic Stadium (Bambolim)
Kick-off Times: 4:30 PM IST & 7:30 PM IST
