The AIFF Super Cup 2025–26 reaches its most decisive and dramatic evening yet, with Group A the so-called Group of Death heading into its final matchday finely balanced.
Four teams, two fixtures, one semifinal spot: everything comes down to Dempo SC vs Chennaiyin FC at 4:30 PM and the Kolkata Derby Mohun Bagan Super Giant (MBSG) vs East Bengal FC (EBFC) at 7:30 PM.
With both Kolkata giants level on four points, separated only by goal difference (EBFC +4, MBSG +2), the stakes couldn’t be higher. East Bengal hold the mathematical advantage and need only a scored draw to qualify, while Mohun Bagan the only side yet to concede a goal must win to keep their Super Cup dreams alive.
The State of Group A: A Tightrope Race
After two matchdays, Group A stands as follows:
| Team | MP | GF:GA | Pts |
| 1. East Bengal FC | 2 | 6:2 | 4 |
| 2. Mohun Bagan SG | 2 | 2:0 | 4 |
| 3. Dempo SC | 2 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 4. Chennaiyin FC | 2 | 0:6 | 0 |
East Bengal’s thumping 4–0 victory over Chennaiyin has given them a crucial buffer in goal difference, while Dempo’s two gritty draws against both Kolkata sides have ensured that the final day retains mathematical intrigue. Dempo’s discipline and tactical intelligence led by coach Samir Naik have been the group’s surprise story. Holding both giants to draws has given them a remote, but not impossible, path to qualification: a 4–0 or greater win over Chennaiyin coupled with a goalless draw in the Derby could yet send the Goan club through.
Match 1: Dempo SC vs Chennaiyin FC (4:30 PM, Bambolim)
The early kickoff at Bambolim sets the stage for the evening’s drama. Dempo, playing at home, have been the tournament’s revelation disciplined, structured, and fearless. They’ve drawn 2–2 with East Bengal and 0–0 with Mohun Bagan, and their performances have rekindled memories of their I-League dominance under Armando Colaco. Coach Samir Naik, a Dempo stalwart, has built a compact and technically sound Indian core that thrives on structure and counterattacking discipline. His side’s ability to absorb pressure and deny space to high-value opponents has been exemplary.
For Chennaiyin FC, the campaign has been dismal. Two matches, two defeats, zero goals scored, and six conceded. Their all-Indian lineup under Clifford Miranda has lacked both cutting edge and cohesion. But with nothing left to lose, Chennaiyin will chase pride and their first goal in the final group fixture.
Interestingly, the match pits two old teammates against each other Naik and Miranda, both part of Dempo’s golden era as players. Their mutual familiarity may lead to a tactical stalemate, with neither coach likely to overcommit early.
For the Kolkata clubs watching from afar, this fixture matters deeply. A heavy Dempo win by four or more goals could create a bizarre scenario where both East Bengal and Mohun Bagan risk elimination if the Derby ends goalless. But realistically, given Dempo’s structured approach and Chennaiyin’s blunt attack, the likely outcome is modest in margin.
Prediction: Dempo SC 2–1 Chennaiyin FC
Dempo finish strong with five points but fall short of qualification.
Match 2: Mohun Bagan SG vs East Bengal FC (7:30 PM, Kolkata)
And then, the Derby. The most storied rivalry in Indian football 100 years of shared history, emotion, and conflict now doubles as a virtual quarterfinal.
For Mohun Bagan, the equation is simple but unforgiving: win or go home. For East Bengal, a draw with goals (1–1 or higher) is enough to progress thanks to their superior goal difference. A goalless draw, however, opens the faint door for Dempo if they produce a freak result earlier in the day. The narrative couldn’t be more tantalizing. Mohun Bagan, the defending Indian Super League champions, have yet to win the Super Cup the only major domestic honour missing from their cabinet. East Bengal, the reigning Super Cup holders, are looking to defend their crown and underline their resurgence under Oscar Bruzon.
Form and Tactical Outlook
Mohun Bagan’s path to the Derby:
- Beat Chennaiyin 2–0
- Drew 0–0 with Dempo
MBSG’s hallmark this campaign has been defensive perfection. Two games, two clean sheets. But coach Jose Molina knows that containment alone won’t suffice tonight. With East Bengal’s +4 goal difference advantage, Bagan must attack from the outset. Expect Molina to field his most aggressive front line Jamie Maclaren, Jason Cummings, and Dimitri Petratos. The Australian duo’s chemistry will be key, supported by midfielders Apuia and Anirudh Thapa, tasked with breaking East Bengal’s central resistance led by Saul Crespo and Lalchungnunga.
East Bengal’s journey so far:
- Drew 2–2 with Dempo
- Beat Chennaiyin 4–0
That 4–0 win was more than just a result; it reasserted East Bengal’s attacking belief. Their forward line Hamid Ahadad, Naorem Mahesh Singh, and Cleiton Silva has begun clicking, and Bruzon’s side carries momentum. But tonight, they face a Bagan defense yet to concede in the tournament and a crowd split between anxiety and anticipation. Bruzon will likely adopt a pragmatic approach: stay compact, frustrate, and hit on the break. For East Bengal, even a 1–1 draw secures progression, but complacency could be fatal in a fixture where momentum can flip in seconds.
Emotionally, Mohun Bagan have the edge. They’ve dominated recent head-to-heads, winning three of the last six competitive meetings and losing only one. Yet, East Bengal’s tactical clarity and mathematical cushion hand them control. If Dempo win big earlier in the evening, the Derby dynamic could shift dramatically forcing both Kolkata giants to chase goals instead of safety. Otherwise, expect a cagey first half followed by an all-out assault from Bagan as the clock winds down.
Predicted Outcomes and Implications
- Dempo SC 2–1 Chennaiyin FC
→ Dempo end with five points, exit gallantly. - Mohun Bagan SG 2–1 East Bengal FC
→ Bagan qualify for the semifinals with seven points, ending East Bengal’s title defense.
This projected outcome would mean the Super Cup semifinal lineup gains its biggest storyline: Mohun Bagan chasing the one domestic title that has long eluded them. East Bengal’s exit, despite their strong start, would amplify questions over game management in crunch fixtures especially against their eternal rivals.
For Indian football fans, though, one thing is certain: the 2025–26 Super Cup’s Group of Death is about to deliver a night that will live long in Kolkata folklore.
