The Women’s Cricket World Cup 2025 has reached its decisive stage, and India’s campaign once full of promise now teeters on a razor’s edge.
After three consecutive defeats, the latest a painful four-run loss to England in Indore, Harmanpreet Kaur’s team finds itself in a must-deliver situation with just two league matches remaining. The points table, as it stands, is both a reflection of India’s inconsistencies and a reminder that qualification is still within reach. Australia (9 points), England (9), and South Africa (8) have all sealed semifinal spots. That leaves one remaining place, and it will almost certainly come down to India (4 points) and New Zealand (4 points).
The equation is clear: two matches, one decisive showdown.
The Table and the Stakes
After five matches, India’s record reads:
- Played: 5
- Won: 2
- Lost: 3
- NRR: +0.522
- Points: 4
New Zealand, too, are on 4 points but with a negative NRR (-0.245) and two no-results keeping them afloat. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan are all but out of contention. That means the battle for the final semifinal spot will be India vs New Zealand, and fittingly, they face each other next on October 23.
If India win, they’ll have one foot in the semifinals. If they lose, the qualification math gets more complicated but not impossible.
The Path to Qualification: Here’s how India can still make it to the final four:
Scenario 1: Beat New Zealand
- India move to 6 points.
- A win against Bangladesh in the final group match will take them to 8 points, ensuring semifinal qualification regardless of other results.
- In this case, New Zealand will be eliminated, and India could potentially finish third on the table depending on net run rate.
Scenario 2: Lose to New Zealand but Beat Bangladesh
- India would finish with 6 points.
- For India to qualify, New Zealand must lose to England in their final match.
- Given that England are in top form, this remains a realistic possibility.
However, India’s progression will then depend on net run rate and that’s where things could get tricky.
Scenario 3: Lose Both Matches
- India will stay on 4 points and be eliminated from semifinal contention.
The England Game: A Lesson in Mindset
India’s defeat to England wasn’t about lack of skill it was about lapses in temperament.
Chasing 289, India were cruising at 163/2 in the 30th over, with Smriti Mandhana (88) and Harmanpreet Kaur (70) dominating England’s attack. The equation read like a training scenario: 126 runs off 120 balls, 8 wickets in hand, set batters at the crease. But as the finish line approached, nerves took over. Harmanpreet’s dismissal triggered a familiar collapse. Mandhana, too, perished playing an aerial shot she later called “unnecessary.”
“I’ll take it on myself,” Mandhana admitted post-match. “The collapse started from me. We just needed six per over. Maybe we should’ve taken the game deeper. The shot selection wasn’t right.” India went from 234/3 to 262/6, losing momentum and composure in the final stretch. Deepti Sharma, who starred with both bat and ball (4/51 and 50 runs), fought bravely but couldn’t pull off the win.
“You don’t play cricket to have easy days,” Mandhana reflected later. “It’s about how you take those bad days and move on. The next match is like a quarterfinal for us.” Her words summed up India’s situation perfectly: capable, but lacking in execution under pressure.
Where India Stand: Strengths and Weaknesses
Positives
Top-order consistency: Mandhana has been India’s rock with scores of 80 and 88 in the last two games. Harmanpreet’s fifty against England and Deepti’s all-round brilliance show that form isn’t the issue.
Bowling depth: Deepti’s control and Sree Charani’s emergence as a wicket-taker have given India a balanced attack.
Fielding intensity: India’s ground fielding has improved remarkably, saving at least 15–20 runs in recent games.
Areas of Concern
Finishing the chase: India have now failed to close out three consecutive matches despite being in winning positions in all of them (vs South Africa, Australia, and England).
Middle-order stability: Beyond Harmanpreet and Deepti, no batter has shown the temperament to guide the innings under pressure.
Tactical flexibility: India have often stuck to fixed batting orders and rigid bowling changes even when game situations demanded more dynamism.
Mental Resilience: The Missing Piece
Perhaps the most telling part of the England defeat was how India handled pressure. As wickets fell, shot selection grew erratic, strike rotation froze, and composure vanished. The meltdown echoed the heartbreaks of 2017 and 2022 moments where India seemed within touching distance of glory but faltered mentally.
Coach Amol Muzumdar has emphasized “game awareness” repeatedly, but the execution gap persists.
As former captain Mithali Raj noted on commentary: “India aren’t losing because of lack of talent. They’re losing because of poor game management in key moments.” That’s the crux of it. The team has enough match-winners, but not enough finishers who can absorb pressure.
India’s match against New Zealand in Mumbai is now a virtual quarterfinal not mathematically do-or-die, but psychologically must-win. New Zealand’s campaign has been inconsistent, hampered by rain-affected games. Their batting has relied heavily on Amelia Kerr, and their bowling has lacked penetration outside of Lea Tahuhu.
India, on the other hand, must focus on what they can control:
Build partnerships through patience, rotate strike better in the middle overs and trust their lower order to finish if the game goes deep.
With a superior Net Run Rate (+0.522) compared to New Zealand’s (-0.245), even a narrow win could put India in a strong position heading into their final group match against Bangladesh.
If India qualify, they’ll almost certainly face Australia in the semifinals a daunting yet familiar challenge. Australia remain unbeaten, clinical, and ruthless. But for India, reaching that stage itself would be a statement of resilience. After three heartbreaking losses, simply getting to the knockouts would prove that this side can absorb setbacks and bounce back.
India’s campaign so far has been a lesson in contrasts moments of dominance undone by moments of doubt. From Mandhana’s fluent drives to Deepti’s discipline, the building blocks are all there. What’s missing is the finishing touch.
The equation is simple, but the task is psychological. Beat New Zealand. Beat Bangladesh. Control your own destiny.
As Smriti Mandhana said, “You don’t play cricket for easy days.”
For India, the hardest days have arrived and so has their moment of truth.
