Few fixtures in world sport generate the kind of anticipation, emotion, and intensity that accompanies an India vs Pakistan clash.
When it happens on the stage of the ICC Women’s World Cup, it transcends the boundary of cricket and becomes a cultural moment. On Sunday, October 5, 2025, the R. Premadasa International Stadium in Colombo will host this marquee encounter the sixth match of the tournament pitting a confident Indian side against a desperate Pakistan looking for redemption after a faltering start.
India’s Momentum vs. Pakistan’s Desperation
India enters the match ranked third in the world and high on confidence after a hard-fought victory over Sri Lanka in their opener. The win showcased India’s depth and composure qualities that separate serious title contenders from the rest. Reduced to 124/6 after a shaky start, India’s lower-middle order, led by Deepti Sharma (53) and Amanjot Kaur (57), engineered a crucial 103-run stand that propelled the side to a strong 269/8 in 47 overs.
Deepti then starred with the ball, returning 3/54, supported ably by Sneh Rana and Kranti Goud, as India wrapped up a 59-run win via the DLS method.
That victory not only provided early momentum but also reaffirmed India’s ability to absorb pressure a vital trait in a tournament as unpredictable as the World Cup. Harmanpreet Kaur’s leadership remains pivotal; her ability to rotate bowling resources and maintain calm in crisis has been a defining feature of India’s recent resurgence.
Pakistan, in contrast, arrive bruised after a heavy seven-wicket defeat to Bangladesh. Bowled out for just 129 in 38.3 overs, their batting frailties were exposed again an ominous sign ahead of facing an Indian bowling attack rich in variety and experience.
Captain Fatima Sana’s optimism that “records are meant to be broken” will require more than belief; it will take tactical discipline and a significant improvement in execution.
Historical Context: India’s Unbroken ODI Dominance
The head-to-head record is stark: India has won all 11 ODI meetings against Pakistan. In fact, across formats, India leads 24–3, with Pakistan’s three victories coming only in T20Is. The last ODI meeting, during the 2022 World Cup, ended in a commanding 107-run win for India.
This lopsided record shapes the psychological landscape of every India–Pakistan clash. For India, it breeds confidence and strategic clarity. For Pakistan, it is a mental mountain that looms before a single ball is bowled. The burden of history has often weighed heavily on Pakistan’s approach especially in the longer formats where composure and batting depth are decisive.
Pakistan’s last taste of success came in the 2022 T20 Asia Cup, a low-scoring game where their spinners suffocated India’s middle order. That result underlines the only viable blueprint for Pakistan: create conditions where spin dominates, restrict India’s scoring, and force errors under pressure.
The R. Premadasa pitch is renowned for its dual nature offering good bounce and early scoring opportunities before gradually slowing down to favor spin. That trajectory could narrow the gap between the two sides, making batting first less of an automatic advantage.
For India, the equation is simple: attack early while the ball is new. Smriti Mandhana and Pratika Rawal must set the tone in the Powerplay before Pakistan’s spinners, Nashra Sandhu and Sadia Iqbal, come into play. India’s middle order Harmanpreet Kaur, Jemimah Rodrigues, and Deepti Sharma will need to adapt quickly, focusing on strike rotation rather than boundary-hitting as the surface deteriorates.
Pakistan’s tactical lifeline lies in exploiting that phase. Fatima Sana has already identified her spin pair as “match-winners” and with reason. Sandhu and Iqbal have the craft and control to make life uncomfortable for batters on slow tracks. If they can bowl in tandem and apply sustained pressure, Pakistan might yet create an opening.
Rain, however, remains a wildcard. With forecasts suggesting up to 50% chance of showers during the match, the toss could prove critical. Teams chasing tend to benefit under DLS conditions, especially when matches get shortened. India, having already managed and won a rain-affected game in their opener, will be better prepared for such disruptions.
Predicted XIs and Tactical Outlook
India Women (Expected XI):
Pratika Rawal, Smriti Mandhana (vc), Harleen Deol, Harmanpreet Kaur (c), Jemimah Rodrigues, Richa Ghosh (wk), Deepti Sharma, Amanjot Kaur, Sneh Rana, Kranti Goud, Renuka Singh Thakur/Shree Charani
Pakistan Women (Expected XI):
Muneeba Ali, Omaima Sohail, Sidra Amin, Aliya Riaz, Rameen Shamim, Sidra Nawaz (wk), Fatima Sana (c), Natalia Pervaiz, Diana Baig, Nashra Sandhu, Sadia Iqbal
India are expected to field an unchanged side, continuing with the balanced combination that delivered in the opener. The mix of all-rounders gives Harmanpreet Kaur the luxury of depth in both departments. Pakistan, meanwhile, may consider an additional batter, but dropping a spinner on a turning track seems unlikely.
Key Matchups to Watch
1. Smriti Mandhana vs Pakistan’s New Ball Attack
Mandhana’s form has been extraordinary scores of 125, 117, and 58 in her last three ODIs underline her dominance. Against Pakistan’s pace pair of Fatima Sana and Diana Baig, her aggressive Powerplay approach could dictate the tone of the game. If Mandhana bats deep, India could easily neutralize Pakistan’s spin plans.
2. India’s Middle Order vs Sandhu & Iqbal
The spin battle will define the middle overs. India’s trio of Harmanpreet, Jemimah, and Deepti must handle Pakistan’s left-arm spin duo intelligently. Expect tactical patience nudging singles, manipulating gaps, and ensuring wickets aren’t lost in clusters. Pakistan’s best chance is to trigger a middle-order wobble.
3. Renuka Singh Thakur vs Pakistan’s Top Order
Renuka’s ability to swing the ball in overcast conditions makes her India’s key weapon early on. With Pakistan’s batters struggling against movement, an early strike or two from Renuka could break the contest open before the spinners even enter.
Players to Watch
Smriti Mandhana (India)
India’s vice-captain remains the biggest threat. Her dominance against both pace and spin gives India a decisive advantage. An early onslaught from her bat can deflate Pakistan’s bowlers and silence their hopes.
Deepti Sharma (India)
The quintessential match-winner. Deepti’s 53 and 3/54 against Sri Lanka showcased her dual influence. On a spin-friendly track, her off-breaks will be central to India’s control through the middle overs.
Renuka Singh Thakur (India)
Swing, accuracy, and aggression Renuka brings all three. Her 5/29 against West Indies last year was a reminder of her ability to dismantle line-ups early.
Fatima Sana (Pakistan)
As captain and all-rounder, Sana carries a heavy load. She must strike early with the ball and guide her team with composure. Her leadership will be tested like never before.
Nashra Sandhu & Sadia Iqbal (Pakistan)
The spin twins hold Pakistan’s fate. Their success in controlling the tempo and inducing mistakes from India’s middle order could be the only route to an upset.
Prediction: India Favourites, but Spin and Rain Could Intrude
Despite the ever-present unpredictability of Indo-Pak contests, this one appears tilted heavily in India’s favour. The gulf in batting quality, experience, and composure is too significant to ignore. India’s 11-0 record in ODIs against Pakistan isn’t just statistical it reflects a structural and mental dominance built over decades.
That said, Colombo’s conditions could add intrigue. If Pakistan’s spinners hit their rhythm early and rain reduces overs, the match could tighten. Yet, for all practical purposes, India’s superior depth from Mandhana’s stroke play to Deepti’s all-round reliability makes them the safer bet.
Expect India to maintain their unbeaten streak with another commanding performance, barring an extraordinary collapse or weather intervention. For Pakistan, a spirited fight and improved batting display could still mark progress even in defeat.
Projected Result: India Women to win comfortably
Venue: R. Premadasa International Cricket Stadium, Colombo
Date & Time: Sunday, October 5, 2025 — 3:00 PM IST
