As the ICC Women’s Cricket World Cup 2025 heads into its final stretch, the race for the semi-finals is heating up and India find themselves right in the middle of it.
After 13 of 28 league matches, the points table has started to take shape: Australia (7 points) and England (6) look well on course for the top two spots, while India (4), South Africa (4), and New Zealand (2) are locked in a tense battle for the remaining two semi-final berths.
India’s campaign has been a mix of commanding wins and costly lapses. With two victories from four matches, Harmanpreet Kaur’s side remains in contention but the path to the semi-finals now demands precision, patience, and possibly, a little help from the net run rate (NRR).
The Qualification Equation: NZ, SA, and India for Two Spots
Australia’s consistency and England’s unbeaten run have made them virtual semi-final certainties. That leaves South Africa, India, and New Zealand competing for the final two slots.
Currently, both India and South Africa have two wins, but the Proteas have played one match fewer and still have fixtures left against Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka three teams currently in the bottom half. Unless there’s a major upset, South Africa should comfortably reach at least four wins, which would likely be enough to seal a semi-final place.
That means the real battle and India’s fate will hinge on their clash with New Zealand.
India’s Remaining Fixtures
•vs England – a tough matchup against an unbeaten side
•vs New Zealand – a likely do-or-die contest
•vs Bangladesh – potentially the decider, depending on NRR
India’s next game against England is crucial but also perilous. England, led by Heather Knight, have looked clinical across formats and boast the best net run rate (+1.86). If India lose that fixture which is the most realistic projection their route to the semis will depend on beating New Zealand and ensuring a healthy NRR cushion going into their final match against Bangladesh.
New Zealand’s Run-In: Advantage, but Pressure Too
The White Ferns, sitting on two points, have matches against Sri Lanka and Pakistan next both winnable. Assuming they win those, they’ll reach six points, setting up a direct face-off against India that could effectively decide one semi-final spot.
If India beat New Zealand, both teams could finish on six points, but India’s NRR (+0.68) currently gives them the upper hand.
The final day of the group stage could then turn into a nerve-wracking race: England vs New Zealand and India vs Bangladesh Both matches are on the same day, with New Zealand playing first. That means India will walk into their final fixture knowing exactly what NRR target they need to surpass.
Scenarios: How India Can Qualify
Scenario 1: The Straightforward Route
•India lose to England
•Beat New Zealand
•Beat Bangladesh
This gives India four wins (8 points), which almost certainly guarantees a top-four finish, regardless of NRR.
Scenario 2: The NRR Battle
•India lose to England
•Beat New Zealand
•Lose or narrowly beat Bangladesh
In this case, India would finish with 6 points, tied with New Zealand (if they beat Sri Lanka and Pakistan). The semi-final slot would then be decided by Net Run Rate and given India’s current +0.68, they’re well-positioned to stay ahead if they avoid heavy defeats.
Scenario 3: The Worst-Case – India lose to both England and New Zealand
That would leave them on 4 points, effectively eliminating them from semi-final contention before the final day.
Despite inconsistencies, this Indian team isn’t outmatched far from it. Their two wins have come from strong all-round displays, anchored by Smriti Mandhana’s form at the top, Deepti Sharma’s control with the ball, and Richa Ghosh’s counter-attacking cameos in the middle order. The bowling unit, led by Renuka Singh and Pooja Vastrakar, has found rhythm on Indian pitches, capable of striking early and defending totals effectively. India’s biggest hurdle, however, remains batting collapses under pressure particularly against elite pace units like Australia and England.
In Guwahati and Mumbai, where their remaining matches are scheduled, the pitches are expected to aid spin a potential advantage India can exploit, especially with Radha Yadav and Deepti Sharma in the middle overs.
South Africa’s schedule against Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka makes them heavy favorites for qualification. If they sweep those games, they’ll reach 8 points, leaving only one semi-final slot realistically available between India and New Zealand.
The Proteas’ only vulnerability lies in their inconsistency against spin, which could come into play against subcontinental opposition, but they hold the NRR edge in case of ties.
The permutations are clear:
•South Africa should qualify.
•The India vs New Zealand clash will likely decide the final spot for Semifinal.
•If India win that and stay ahead on NRR, they’re through.
India’s advantage lies in playing their final game after New Zealand, meaning they will know the exact equation — runs, overs, or NRR margin required to qualify. If England and Australia remain dominant, the battle for third and fourth could come down to decimal points.
India’s semi-final hopes hinge on one defining night against New Zealand. Win that, handle Bangladesh professionally, and qualification is within grasp. Lose both, and it’s curtains.
Given the form, talent, and home support India are qualifying.
