“So what do you feel about India’s chances for Los Angeles 2028?” Is the question often asked When people meet a sports writer, the first question they often ask is, Closely followed by, “Will we do better in Los Angeles than we did at Paris 2024?”
The answer to these questions is not something abstract or speculative. It is not blowing in the wind. It is written every single year in how India performs at world championships across Olympic sports. These championships, held annually in the very disciplines that form the Olympic programme, provide the clearest and most honest indicators of a country’s true standing.
If one wants to assess India’s Olympic future, one must look closely at how Indian athletes perform at world championships in Olympic events. These competitions strip away hype and reveal the real level of competitiveness against the world’s best.
So what do the world championships of 2025 tell us about India’s Olympic sports ecosystem and its potential medal count at Los Angeles 2028?
India’s Position in the World Championships of 2025
In 2025, world championships were held in 26 sports out of the 36 that will form the Olympic programme at Los Angeles 2028. These sports ranged alphabetically from aquatics to wrestling. However, it is important to note that world championships were not held in 10 sports, including two particularly significant ones T20 cricket, which will make its Olympic debut in 2028, and hockey, where India traditionally carries strong medal hopes.
Across these 26 world championships, a total of 315 medal events were contested, with 86 countries winning at least one medal. When the results are aggregated across all sports, India finished 31st in the overall ranking table. However, rankings can be misleading. In terms of total medals won, India finished 19th in the world, with a tally of 12 medals comprising 2 gold, 4 silver, and 6 bronze. This distinction is important because it reflects depth and competitiveness rather than just podium-topping dominance.
This medal count places India ahead of several traditionally strong sporting nations and firmly within the global middle tier of Olympic competitiveness.
A Comparison With the Last Ten Years
In my view, India’s 2025 performance represents its best-ever showing in terms of total medals won at world championships in a non-Olympic year. While India had respectable medal distributions in 2019 and 2023, those numbers require closer scrutiny.
In both 2019 and 2023, India won four to five medals at the AIBA Boxing World Championships. While these were officially recognised as world championships, the competitive integrity of those events was compromised. Many Western nations boycotted the championships due to the prolonged rift between the International Olympic Committee and AIBA.
As a result, the boxing medals India won in 2019 and 2023 did not carry the same competitive weight as medals won in fully representative world championships. This discrepancy later became evident in India’s poor boxing returns at the Tokyo and Paris Olympics.
The historical comparison makes this clear:
- In 2017, India won 4 world championship medals
- In 2018, the tally rose to 6
- In 2019, it reached 11, heavily influenced by boxing
- Olympic years saw limited championships
- In 2022, India won 7 medals
- In 2023, again 11 medals with boxing influence
- In 2025, India reached 12 medals without relying disproportionately on boxing
This makes 2025 India’s strongest and most credible world championship performance to date.
Using World Championships to Project LA 2028
World championships are the closest competitive proxy to Olympic conditions. While they do not guarantee Olympic medals, they provide a reliable framework for projection.
Based on the 2025 world championships, let us examine the sports where India showed sufficient competitiveness to realistically project medals at Los Angeles 2028.
Archery: Archery is one of the sports where India’s prospects improve significantly heading into LA 2028. The introduction of the compound mixed team event for the first time at the Olympics is a major development in India’s favour. At the 2025 Archery World Championships, India won a silver medal in the compound mixed team event and currently holds the world number one ranking in this discipline. This immediately positions India as a serious medal contender.
In recurve events, India did not win a medal, but the women’s team finished fourth, narrowly missing the podium. This shows competitiveness at the highest level, even if execution on the final day fell short. Based on these results, archery emerges as one of India’s strongest medal prospects at LA 2028.
Projected medals in archery: 1–2
Athletics: Athletics remains a sport where India has isolated excellence rather than widespread depth. Neeraj Chopra continues to be one of the most consistent performers in global athletics. From 2018 to 2025, he has maintained an extraordinary record of podium finishes across major competitions.
The 2025 World Championships, however, were an outlier. Neeraj finished eighth, which was a shock result. At the same event, Sachin Yadav finished fourth in javelin, narrowly missing a medal, while Sarvesh Kushare placed sixth in the high jump.
India is increasingly competitive in a cluster of field events such as javelin, high jump, long jump, and triple jump. However, Neeraj remains the only Indian athlete who has consistently medalled at world championships. Based purely on world championship evidence, athletics offers limited but real medal potential.
Projected medals in athletics: 0–1
Badminton: Badminton continues to be a sport of mixed signals for India. At the 2025 World Championships, the men’s doubles pair of Satwik and Chirag won a bronze medal and remain India’s most reliable medal hope heading into LA 2028.
In mixed doubles, Dhruv and Tanisha reached the quarterfinals, a significant achievement in an event that has traditionally been India’s weakest discipline. PV Sindhu once again reached the quarterfinals, demonstrating her trademark big-match temperament even in a season where signs of age and physical wear were visible. India also has promising younger players emerging across singles and doubles categories. However, based on current form and world championship results, these players remain outside realistic medal contention.
Projected medals in badminton: 0–2
Boxing: Boxing is perhaps the most complicated sport to assess. India has historically done well at world championships, but those performances have rarely translated into Olympic medals.
As discussed earlier, many of India’s world championship boxing medals came during the AIBA era, when top nations were absent. This partially explains India’s underwhelming Olympic results in boxing. In 2025, India won just one medal a gold by Jaismine Lamboria. Jaismine also won gold at the World Cup Final, making her one of India’s standout athletes of the year.
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However, selection decisions for the world championships were questionable, and results from the World Cup circuit suggested that a stronger team could have been fielded. Ranking and seeding remain major issues, as Indian boxers often face top opposition early at the Olympics due to poor rankings.
Among the men, Abhinash Jamwal stood out, while the depth remains uncertain.
Projected medals in boxing: 1–2
Table Tennis: India continues to improve in table tennis, and the introduction of men’s and women’s doubles at LA 2028 improves theoretical medal chances.
However, the reality at the 2025 World Championships was sobering. Indian players looked overwhelmed when facing the very top opposition. Despite encouraging rankings in doubles and mixed doubles, performance under world championship pressure suggests that an Olympic medal remains a long shot.
Projected medals in table tennis: 0
Weightlifting: India’s Olympic hopes in weightlifting have traditionally revolved around Mirabai Chanu. While she remains a central figure, the emergence of younger lifters, including those breaking youth world records, introduces healthy internal competition.
However, consistent senior-level world championship podium finishes remain elusive outside Mirabai.
Projected medals in weightlifting: 0–1
Wrestling: Wrestling once again saw unnecessary drama derail India’s campaign. Key medal contenders were suspended before the championships due to disciplinary and weight issues, eliminating major medal chances even before competition began.
India finished with one bronze medal through Antim in the women’s 53 kg category. Several other wrestlers had close finishes and showed competitive form, particularly in Greco-Roman and freestyle. With experienced wrestlers expected to return and better stability anticipated, future results may improve. However, based strictly on 2025 evidence:
Projected medals in wrestling: 0–2
Shooting: If there was one sport that defined India’s success in 2025, it was shooting. India delivered a record-breaking performance, winning eight medals in Olympic shooting events at a single world championship.
Since 2018, India has consistently performed well in shooting World Cups but historically under performed at world championships. The 2025 performance marked a major shift. While shotgun events remain a weakness, pistol and rifle events showed extraordinary depth. India won seven medals across ten pistol and rifle events, demonstrating the capability to contend in nearly every discipline.
The sheer depth of talent means internal competition is fierce, and the squad is capable of sustaining excellence.
Projected medals in shooting: 4–6
Final Projection for LA 2028: Based strictly on the performances at the 2025 world championships, India’s projected medal range at the Los Angeles Olympics stands at 6–16 medals. When accounting for cricket and hockey sports that did not feature in the 2025 world championships but where India has legitimate medal potential the range expands to 9–18 medals.
If this projection holds, Los Angeles 2028 could become India’s most successful Olympic campaign ever, potentially breaking the long-awaited double-digit medal barrier and marking a defining moment in the country’s Olympic journey.
