The FIDE World Cup 2025 in Goa has unfolded with a drama few anticipated.
Upsets have torn through the draw, heavyweight contenders have been knocked out early, and the Indian contingent once a record 24 strong has been reduced to just two survivors. As the tournament enters the Round of 16, Arjun Erigaisi and Pentala Harikrishna stand as India’s last remaining hopes in a World Cup marked by unpredictability, pressure and the looming significance of 2026 Candidates qualification.
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When the event began, India fielded its biggest-ever roster: grandmasters with international pedigree, fast-rising juniors, and the reigning World Champion D. Gukesh. Optimism was high. But knockout formats punish inconsistency and reward resilience, and the numbers tell the story of India’s collapse.
From 24 players in Round 1, India fell to 17 in Round 2, then to 10 in Round 3, five in Round 4, and now only two remain in Round 5. The biggest shocks came early:
• Gukesh, the top seed, was eliminated in Round 3 by Germany’s Frederik Svane.
• Vidit Gujrathi and S.L. Narayanan followed soon after.
• In Round 4, Praggnanandhaa, the 2023 World Cup runner-up, was knocked out by Daniil Dubov in rapid tiebreaks.
By the end of Round 4, the Indian campaign was stripped to its core: Arjun and Harikrishna, two players with contrasting styles but aligned ambitions.
India’s collapse has occurred alongside a global meltdown of top seeds. Anish Giri, Wesley So, Vincent Keymer, Nodirbek Abdusattorov, Shakhriyar Mamedyarov, and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave all exited before the Round of 16. These early eliminations have radically reshaped the bracket.
Remarkably, Arjun Erigaisi is now the only top-10 rated player left in the event. The absence of many elite contenders has created a rare opportunity: the path to the semifinal and with it, a strong chance at a Candidates berth is far more open than in typical World Cup years. For India, this shift magnifies the significance of both remaining players’ Round 5 encounters.
Arjun Erigaisi vs Levon Aronian: Youth Meets Legacy
Arjun enters the Round of 16 as the world No. 6 and the tournament’s highest-rated survivor. His maturity has grown rapidly over the last two years, and his aggressive, dynamic style has earned him both praise and the occasional label of “madman” for his tactical fearlessness. In Round 4 against Peter Leko, Arjun remained calm, drew both classical games, and dominated the rapid tiebreaks 3–1. His comfort in faster formats gives him a psychological edge in matches likely to stretch into tiebreaks.
Standing across from him, however, is Levon Aronian a two-time World Cup champion and the only remaining player in the draw with prior Candidates experience. At 43, Aronian is fighting what may be one of his final serious attempts to re-enter the championship cycle. His classical victory over Radoslaw Wojtaszek in Round 4 shows he is still capable of punching above the rating table.
Arjun’s challenge will be to avoid getting drawn into Aronian’s deep opening preparation while leveraging his own strengths in dynamic positions. If the match goes to rapid tiebreaks, the odds tilt in Arjun’s favor. But beating a veteran with Aronian’s pedigree in classical play remains one of the stiffest challenges of the entire round.
Pentala Harikrishna vs Jose Martinez Alcantara: Stability vs Chaos
Harikrishna, world No. 2690 and seeded 24th, brings a different flavour to India’s campaign. A grandmaster for nearly 25 years, his style is rooted in technical mastery, deep calculation and endgame resilience. His Round 4 win over Nils Grandelius showcased these qualities: defending under pressure in classical, then steering cleanly through the tiebreaks.
But his opponent, Jose Eduardo Martinez Alcantara, is the wildcard of the tournament. The Peruvian has earned the “giant-killer” tag by eliminating 8th seed Nodirbek Abdusattorov and then Alexey Sarana, playing fearless, tactical chess that has drawn admiration even from Viswanathan Anand.
For Hari, the formula is clear:
- Avoid chaotic positions.
- Push the game into structure-rich, technical territory.
- Use endgame superiority to neutralize Martinez’s volatility.
If he can achieve two stable classical draws, Hari becomes the favourite in tiebreaks. But any slip into tactical mayhem will shift momentum sharply toward his dangerous opponent.
With three Candidates spots available, reaching the semifinal (Round 7) is the clearest pathway to qualification. The shock exits of top seeds mean that both Arjun and Harikrishna have more realistic routes to reach that stage than initially projected. For Arjun, victory over Aronian would make him a strong contender for a top-three finish. For Harikrishna, beating Martinez would place him in a favourable quadrant of the bracket, likely facing competitors closer to his rating.
India entered the World Cup with enormous promise, but now the hopes of an entire nation rest on two players at opposite ends of their careers. The Round of 16 represents not just another match, but a gateway to a quarterfinal, to a Candidates berth, and potentially to the World Championship cycle itself. As Arjun and Harikrishna take their seats in Goa, the stakes could not be higher. The journey has been turbulent, but the opportunity ahead is historic.
India now holds its breath.
