The final matchday of Group D in the AIFF Super Cup 2025–26 arrives with a rare combination of clarity and chaos one semi-final place, three contenders, and a narrow set of scoreline permutations that could decide which club advances to the last four and secures a step closer to continental football.
Kerala Blasters FC lead the group and are the only team who enter the final day with a margin of control. Mumbai City FC, the pre-tournament favourites, have been pushed into a must-win situation. Rajasthan United FC, meanwhile, sit in the most uncertain but mathematically alive position, needing not just victory but a specific margin to overhaul the standings. Sporting Club Delhi, though eliminated, will influence the outcome as a potential spoiler. All matches in the group are being played in Goa, with the early kickoff in Bambolim and the decisive head-to-head between Kerala Blasters and Mumbai City FC in Fatorda.
Group Situation Ahead of Final Matchday
| Team | Pts | GD | Status |
| Kerala Blasters FC | 6 | +4 | Need at least a draw to qualify |
| Rajasthan United FC | 3 | 0 | Must win, and possibly by a large margin |
| Mumbai City FC | 3 | +2 | Must win vs Kerala Blasters to qualify |
| Sporting Club Delhi | 0 | -6 | Eliminated, but playing for pride |
Two results earlier in the group reshaped the equation. Kerala Blasters have carried defensive strength into the tournament, winning both matches while conceding none. Rajasthan United’s upset victory over Mumbai City, however, unexpectedly opened the door to a three-way qualification battle.
That 1-0 victory remains the hinge for every calculation now. It not only preserved Rajasthan’s mathematical chances but forced Mumbai City into a position where they must chase goals, not only points.
Kerala Blasters FC: Advantage, But Not Safety
Kerala Blasters need only a draw to progress. Their performances so far have relied on a compact defensive structure anchored by Juan Rodríguez and Bikash Yumnam. They have yet to concede in the group and have been efficient in the final third, led by the form of forward Koldo Obieta, who has scored three goals in two matches. Their approach against Mumbai City is unlikely to shift dramatically. A draw is enough, and Blasters have shown they are comfortable playing controlled, measured football. Their risk lies in the tempo of the match if Mumbai score early, Blasters will need to adjust quickly to avoid being forced into a defensive retreat.
For Mumbai City FC, there is no ambiguity: victory or elimination.
After opening the campaign strongly, their 1-0 defeat to Rajasthan United has placed them in a tight position. They now face the group leaders, who have looked the most structurally settled team in the group. Mumbai will need to break down a side that has not allowed a goal in the competition and have to do so in a high-pressure elimination scenario. The attacking responsibility falls heavily on the frontline of Lallianzuala Chhangte, Jorge Ortiz and Pereyra Díaz.
The return of Akash Mishra also offers an important outlet on the left. Mumbai will need to commit numbers forward, but doing so risks exposing space behind something Kerala have exploited effectively in transition.
If Mumbai win by any scoreline and Rajasthan United fail to produce a large-margin victory earlier in the day, Mumbai will qualify. If Rajasthan win big, Mumbai may need to win by two or more goals to stay ahead on goal difference.
Rajasthan United FC: The Mathematical Path
Rajasthan United’s scenario is the most complicated but not impossible.
Even if they defeat Sporting Club Delhi, they need to win by a margin of at least four goals to seriously enter the qualification debate. After that, they must hope Mumbai defeat Kerala Blasters by exactly one goal. This produces a three-way tie at six points each. In that specific case, goal difference would decide the group winner, and Rajasthan would advance with +4 compared to +3 each for Mumbai and Kerala.
To achieve this, Rajasthan must shift away from the conservative counter-attacking style that earned them their win over Mumbai. They must now play front-foot football high-risk, high-volume, leaving space behind if required. The trade-off is clear: they must score often, and they cannot afford to concede.
Sporting Club Delhi are eliminated, but their role tonight is far from irrelevant. As a new club returning top-flight football identity to the Delhi-NCR region, every result carries value for credibility. A first competitive win in the Super Cup would serve as a significant early milestone and could derail Rajasthan’s hopes entirely.
Delhi’s defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed in both defeats so far, but they have shown capacity to threaten in transition. Against a Rajasthan team forced to push forward, counter-attacking opportunities will be plentiful. Group D arrives at its final day with no room for error. Kerala Blasters hold the advantage but cannot afford a passive approach. Mumbai City must play with conviction and efficiency. Rajasthan United must chase goals with aggression and still remain structurally alert. Sporting Club Delhi have nothing to lose which sometimes makes the most dangerous opponent.
The group will be decided in margins: goal difference, discipline, composure, and execution under pressure.
The footballing stakes are clear the winner moves one step closer to the Super Cup title, and more importantly, a pathway to the AFC Champions League Two next season.
The tension now moves to the pitch.
