As the FIDE World Cup 2025 enters its decisive phase in Goa, India’s massive 24-player contingent has been reduced to just two survivors, Arjun Erigaisi and Pentala Harikrishna.
What began as the country’s strongest-ever lineup in a World Cup has turned into a campaign of attrition, upsets and abrupt exits leaving India’s aspirations for Candidates Tournament qualification hinging entirely on these two vastly different, yet complementary, pillars of Indian chess.
The World Cup is the most demanding knockout event in the chess calendar, carrying enormous significance as the top three finishers advance directly to the 2026 Candidates, the final gateway to challenging for the World Championship. With three rounds remaining before that crucial threshold, the Round of 16 represents a make-or-break moment for both Indian Grandmasters.
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The 206-player World Cup has produced one of the most chaotic editions in its history. Global heavyweights have fallen early. India, which began with unprecedented depth, has suffered its own string of setbacks.
From 24 players in Round 1, the Indian numbers dwindled:
• 17 in Round 2
• 10 in Round 3
• 5 in Round 4
• And finally, only Arjun and Harikrishna remain in Round 5
The quarterfinal hopes of many top Indian names were cut short. The reigning World Champion, D. Gukesh, exited in Round 3 after misjudging a complex knight endgame against Frederik Svane. Round 3 also eliminated Vidit Gujrathi and S.L. Narayanan. Round 4 brought the biggest shock: the exit of R. Praggnanandhaa, the No. 3 seed and 2023 World Cup finalist. Pushed into tiebreaks against Daniil Dubov, Pragg over-pressed with White in the second rapid game, and Dubov’s attacking precision sealed his fate. Along with him, Pranav V and Karthik Venkataraman also fell.
For a tournament hosted on home soil, the collapse has been brutal. Only Harikrishna and Arjun still stand between India and a complete Round-of-16 wipeout.
Arjun Erigaisi: Form, ferocity and the burden of being the last elite seed
At 22, Arjun Erigaisi has become the face of India’s next chess generation. Ranked world No. 6 with a 2769 rating, and the only top-10 player left in the tournament, Arjun enters the Round of 16 as the highest-rated survivor.
His style dynamic, unpredictable and deeply tactical—has earned him a reputation for fearlessness. In Round 4, that aggression paid off as he dispatched Peter Leko in the rapid tiebreaks after two solid classical draws. He capitalized brilliantly on Leko’s pawn sacrifice in the first rapid game, then defused the Hungarian’s risky attempts in the second. Now, Arjun faces the toughest remaining challenge: Levon Aronian, a two-time World Cup champion, former world No. 2 and the only player in the entire Round of 16 with prior Candidates experience.
Aronian has advanced with classical precision and avoids tiebreaks whenever possible. His victory over Wojtaszek in Round 4 reaffirmed that his strategic depth remains intact even at 43.
This matchup is a battle of generational contrast Arjun’s momentum and tactical firepower against Aronian’s legacy, preparation and big-match maturity.
For Arjun, a classical win is ideal, but steering the match into rapid tiebreaks may actually favor him. His tiebreak confidence from Round 4 is a vital weapon. The danger lies in allowing Aronian to control the pace and reduce complexity exactly the scenario the veteran thrives in. If Arjun can destabilize the position and inject tactical complications, India’s brightest star could push into the quarterfinals and into a prime Candidates position.
Pentala Harikrishna: Experience, technique and the quest for one last deep run
At 39, Pentala Harikrishna brings a different persona to India’s campaign. A Grandmaster for over two decades and a former World Championship second for Gukesh, Harikrishna’s strength lies in technical mastery, endgame depth and calm calculation under pressure.
His path to the Round of 16 has demonstrated his hallmark resilience. In Round 4, he was under clear pressure against Nils Grandelius but navigated the position expertly, forcing draws in both classical games before outplaying the Swede in a 34-move rapid win with White.
Harikrishna now faces the tournament’s breakout performer: Jose Eduardo Martinez Alcantara, the Peruvian giant-killer who eliminated Nodirbek Abdusattorov in Round 3 and Alexey Sarana in Round 4. Martinez thrives in sharp, chaotic positions and has been praised by Viswanathan Anand for his creativity and courage. For Harikrishna, this pairing is a psychological and strategic test. The Peruvian’s rating belies his form, and his willingness to take risks can unsettle even elite players.
Harikrishna must avoid entering Martinez’s tactical territory and instead guide the games toward stable structures and long manoeuvring battles zones where his experience can neutralize the Peruvian’s momentum. A calm, controlled entry into tiebreaks may prove his clearest path forward. Martínez is at his most dangerous in the middlegame; Harikrishna is at his best in late-stage precision.
With almost all top-10 global seeds eliminated and only Aronian carrying past Candidates pedigree, the 2025 World Cup is virtually guaranteed to produce several first-time Candidates qualifiers. For India, this extraordinary landscape presents opportunity.
If Arjun reaches the semifinals, he is statistically favored to secure one of the three qualification spots. Harikrishna’s path is also promising if he overcomes Martínez, as the rating averages beyond Round 6 drop sharply due to the elimination of heavy favorites.
The door is open but only just.
The Round of 16 is the crossroads of India’s World Cup journey. Arjun Erigaisi must blend solidity with the sharpness that makes him unique. Pentala Harikrishna must neutralize chaos and lean on experience.
Two players.
One host nation.
And a World Cup that has turned into a test of resilience, character and survival. India now waits to see whether its final two Grandmasters can carry the campaign into the quarterfinals and one step closer to the 2026 Candidates.
