The FIDE World Cup 2025 in Goa has entered its most volatile phase, and for India the stakes have risen sharply. The early and unexpected elimination of reigning World Champion and top seed D. Gukesh has transformed the landscape of the tournament.
What was expected to be a campaign led by three top-10 stars now hinges on how India’s remaining grandmasters respond to heightened pressure in the Round of 32. The prize at stake is immense: three coveted slots in the 2026 Candidates Tournament. With the field shaken by the departures of Gukesh, Anish Giri, Nodirbek Abdusattorov and Wesley So, Indian hopes now rest on Arjun Erigaisi (Seed 2), R. Praggnanandhaa (Seed 3), and seasoned campaigners P. Harikrishna, Pranav V, and Karthik Venkataraman. Their Round 4 matchups present a compelling blend of stylistic clashes, psychological tension, and strategic depth elements that define a knockout event where one mistake often ends dreams.
Erigaisi vs. Leko: Youthful Dynamism Meets Veteran Solidity
Arjun Erigaisi enters Round 4 as India’s biggest medal hope. Ranked World No. 6 and playing exceptional classical chess this season, the 21-year-old has advanced without tiebreaks so far. But his opponent, Peter Leko, is a test unlike any he has faced in this World Cup.
Leko, once a World Championship challenger and one of the most respected positional players of his generation, brings a vast reservoir of experience. His recent form clean victories in Rounds 2 and 3 shows that despite reduced activity in elite circuits, the Hungarian remains a polished classical specialist.
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This matchup highlights a stark stylistic contrast. Erigaisi thrives on tactical complexity, rapid development, and dynamic positions. Leko prefers reducing risk, steering games into long positional battles, often neutralizing even large rating gaps. If Leko manages to flatten the position early, he pushes Erigaisi toward a familiar challenge: how to force ambitions in a strategically arid landscape.
The Indian star is still favored, but the razor-thin difference in their blitz ratings means a slide into tiebreaks could be dangerous. Erigaisi’s best route forward is converting classical initiative early, preventing Leko from playing for the clock.
Praggnanandhaa vs. Dubov: A Collision of Creativity
R Praggnanandhaa’s clash with Daniil Dubov is arguably Round 4’s most unpredictable encounter. Both are known for creative decision-making, but their philosophies diverge sharply under pressure.
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Praggnanandhaa represents a new generation of Indian classical excellence deep prep, structured plans, and accurate calculation. Dubov, however, is chaos incarnate. A former World Rapid Champion and one of the sharpest creative forces in modern chess, he thrives on unorthodox openings and positions that engines evaluate as unclear but humans find deeply uncomfortable.
Dubov is likely to sidestep mainline theory, using systems like 1.b3 or 1.f4 to dismantle Pragg’s preparation and drag him into untested terrain. The danger for Pragg is not in the opening alone Dubov’s speed-chess numbers are elite. Their recent head-to-head in blitz, where Dubov has scored emphatic wins, underlines the risk: if this match reaches rapid or blitz tiebreaks, Dubov becomes the favorite.
For Praggnanandhaa, the priority is decisive classical play. A peaceful 1–1 draw after regulation games would tilt the match psychologically and statistically in Dubov’s favor.
Harikrishna vs. Grandelius: Classical Preparation Meets Aggression
Among India’s five matches, P Harikrishna’s meeting with Sweden’s Nils Grandelius is the most stable on paper. Harikrishna’s experience, maturity, and technical understanding make him well suited to the knockout format. Moreover, he holds a significant psychological edge. In their most noted classical clash at Tata Steel Masters 2021, Harikrishna prevailed convincingly from the black side of a French Defence. He neutralized Grandelius’ customary kingside aggression and eventually outplayed him in a strategic endgame.
This blueprint gives Harikrishna a strong launching pad. If Grandelius repeats his typical 1.e4 structures, the Indian GM’s preparation becomes a major factor. Grandelius may have to alter his repertoire substantially to avoid familiar paths, inherently increasing risk. Harikrishna is favored to advance, barring deep complications or unusual deviations from the Swede.
Pranav V vs. Yakubboev: The Battle of Rising Stars
Seed 60 vs Seed 28 may suggest imbalance, but recent evidence proves this is among the closest Round 4 matchups. Pranav V, born in 2006 and one of India’s most talented emerging players, showed extraordinary resilience just weeks ago at the FIDE Grand Swiss. Against the same opponent, Nodirbek Yakubboev, he saved a seemingly hopeless position after only 17 moves and forced a draw.
That defensive resourcefulness is invaluable in knockout formats where survival is often more important than perfection. Yakubboev, an exceptionally well-rounded player from Uzbekistan’s new wave, enters as the favorite. But his inability to convert large advantages in recent games against Pranav means pressure now sits squarely on his shoulders. Expect a long duel that could easily enter tiebreaks where the psychological tilt might benefit Pranav.
Karthik V vs. Le Quang Liem: The Ultimate Underdog Test
Karthik Venkataraman’s run is one of the tournament stories. Seeded 109th, he overturned the odds in Round 3 by defeating Bogdan-Daniel Deac in a draining tiebreak. But his next challenge is exponentially tougher: Vietnam’s Le Quang Liem, one of the world’s most prepared and consistent all-format players.
The seed difference 96 places is the largest for any Indian matchup. Liem’s theoretical depth and superior speed-chess strength make him a formidable opponent. For Karthik, survival will depend on sturdy defensive schemes and psychological resilience. Any slip in the classical phase will be ruthlessly punished.
Liem is the clear favorite.
With Gukesh out, India’s campaign now rests on a mix of youth, experience, and grit. Erigaisi and Harikrishna enter as clear favorites, while Praggnanandhaa and Pranav face tactical minefields. Karthik carries the underdog spirit. Round 4 is no longer just about advancement it is a test of India’s depth, adaptability and composure under pressure. The path to the Candidates narrows from here, and every move now carries the weight of a nation.
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